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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, although analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.